Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Downturn points to cut in rates

The Bank of England's rate-setters begin their monthly meeting on Wednesday with a range of groups predicting rates will be cut from 4.5%.
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) is calling for a cut to 4% in its economic outlook that predicts recession in 2009.
The downturn is also evident in a KPMG report showing job vacancies falling at the fastest rate in the report's 11 year history.
The interest rate decision will be announced at midday GMT on Thursday.
'Calmer waters'
Last month, the Bank cut its base rate from 5% to 4.5%.
PwC predicts that the UK economy will grow by 1% this year and shrink 0.5% in 2009 before reaching "calmer waters in 2010".
"The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee needs to cut interest rates progressively to 3% or lower in order to prepare the economy for the recovery we hope to see in 2010," said John Hawksworth, head of macroeconomics at PwC, adding that it needs to start by cutting to 4% on Thursday.
The report also calls for the government to take stimulus measures such as bringing forward some of the public spending that is currently planned for future years.
Growing confidence
KPMG's jobs report found demand for staff had fallen heavily.
Recruitment consultants they polled reported that the number of people getting permanent or temporary jobs had been the lowest in the 11 years that the data had been collected as had the number of vacancies available.
There was one better piece of news from Nationwide Building Society's consumer confidence index, which showed the first monthly increase in confidence this year.
Consumers were more pessimistic about the current economic climate but had become significantly more optimistic about how the economy would look in six months time.
"The actions taken by the government and the Bank of England to support financial markets do seem to have buoyed consumers' confidence and could be responsible for the increased confidence in the future economic situation," said Nationwide's chief economist Fionnuala Earley.
But while confidence has improved compared with September, with a reading up from 51 to 55, it has plummeted since October 2007 when it was at 91.
Nationwide said there was a 40% chance that interest rates would be cut by half a point to 4% and a remarkable 55% chance that they would go to 3.75%.

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