Eighty per cent of Australian business leaders are pessimistic about the outlook for 2008/09, with resources and China the major possible saviours, according to Perpetual's annual Leadership Survey.Relief in the form of lower interest rates and looser credit markets came a distant second, while the greatest negatives were seen as continued skilled labour shortages, a lack of affordable credit and omnipresent inflation.Other setbacks for the current financial year include market volatility, together with oil prices and the parlous state of the US economy, a survey by funds manager Perpetual found.Perpetual interviewed 661 respondents from Australia's business elite.Market researcher Richard Lee, who has compiled the Perpetual Leadership Survey since inception, said contradictions were apparent in the findings.For example, on one hand respondents looked for resources to maintain Australia's broad economic performance, while on the other many saw historically high commodity volumes and prices propelling inflation and interest rates."It was the high commodity prices, and the impact that has on consumer spending - the inflationary impact,'' Mr Lee said."Commodity prices are a double-edged sword."Some industries benefit from it - those that are primarily export focused; and others suffer from it - the retail industries, which were extremely concerned about the next 12 months.''Mr Lee said that although the survey was completed in April - well before the recent commodity price meltdown - most respondents had acte
d as reliable harbingers.But their prescience fell over when it came to subsequent changes in the Australian labour market.Mr Lee said it was ironic that pundits said they were pessimistic on the immediate future, yet were still concerned about tight labour markets which, arguably, were beginning to topple."In general, 80% thought things were going to get bad, but only 40% thought things were going to get bad for their own business,'' Mr Lee said."So, that leaves 40% who thought it was only going to affect the other guy.''Other findings included positive sentiment towards proposed federal tax reform, and opportunities arising out of the climate change debate.On the flipside, negatives included industrial relations reform, and the policies of the state governments.In terms of leadership attributes, respondents not surprisingly backed experience, along with "common sense'' and "good judgement''.While some would argue the latter two are often lacking - or even missing in a minority of cases - nevertheless the same sought attributes remained constant across business cycles."What's interesting is those surveys are taken across completely different market cycles, in times of extreme confidence, and emerging extreme pessimism,'' Mr Lee said."But, the fundamentals of what makes a good leader don't change."No leader is going to regard themselves as a poor leader, irrespective of if they are or not."You don't get to the top of the food chain if you don't have self belief.''Perpetual, founded in 1886 as Perpetual Trustees, has around $30 billion of funds under management.The diversified financial group is backed by about $1.97 billion in equity.
d as reliable harbingers.But their prescience fell over when it came to subsequent changes in the Australian labour market.Mr Lee said it was ironic that pundits said they were pessimistic on the immediate future, yet were still concerned about tight labour markets which, arguably, were beginning to topple."In general, 80% thought things were going to get bad, but only 40% thought things were going to get bad for their own business,'' Mr Lee said."So, that leaves 40% who thought it was only going to affect the other guy.''Other findings included positive sentiment towards proposed federal tax reform, and opportunities arising out of the climate change debate.On the flipside, negatives included industrial relations reform, and the policies of the state governments.In terms of leadership attributes, respondents not surprisingly backed experience, along with "common sense'' and "good judgement''.While some would argue the latter two are often lacking - or even missing in a minority of cases - nevertheless the same sought attributes remained constant across business cycles."What's interesting is those surveys are taken across completely different market cycles, in times of extreme confidence, and emerging extreme pessimism,'' Mr Lee said."But, the fundamentals of what makes a good leader don't change."No leader is going to regard themselves as a poor leader, irrespective of if they are or not."You don't get to the top of the food chain if you don't have self belief.''Perpetual, founded in 1886 as Perpetual Trustees, has around $30 billion of funds under management.The diversified financial group is backed by about $1.97 billion in equity.
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