By John Chalmers - Analysis
BEIJING (Reuters) - It won't provoke a diplomatic incident and patriotic mobs are unlikely to take to Beijing's streets, but if Western leaders and the foreign media rain on China's parade it could leave a damaging legacy of resentment.
"So far it's going very poorly in terms of China's broader relationship with the world community," said John Delury, a China expert at the Asia Society in New York. "There's a good chance it's going to lead to some bad blood." There is no doubt that China's domestic media will present the Games as a glorious national achievement. But the Western media has so far been much more grudging, dwelling on Beijing's smog, government efforts to block sensitive websites, the harassment of journalists, the silencing of dissidents and unrest in both Tibet and the Xinjiang region. Western leaders, too, have seized on the opportunity to chide China over its human rights record, most notably U.S. President George W. Bush in a speech delivered on Thursday, just hours before he was due to arrive in Beijing for the opening of the Games. Minxin Pei, a senior associate in the China Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, expects the Chinese government to play all this down because it knows overreaction would itself be a news story and counter-productive.
"As for the public, if the government's reaction is measured, the public's reaction will also be restrained," he said, dismissing the prospect of patriotic street protests like those that erupted against Japan in 2005, or over what was perceived as Western support for anti-Chinese rioters in Tibet this year. Delury noted that explosions of nationalist outrage appear to have been manipulated in the past by what he referred to as government-sponsored netizens, and suggested that these would be reined in during the Games to preserve the image of a modern and responsible nation. "Things would have to get very dire, and quickly, to reach the point where the government wants to encourage or unleash that sort of sentiment," he said. "BAD GUESTS" There could nevertheless be strident displays of nationalism if China romps to the top of the medals table in the Olympic Games. That, along with the intense scrutiny the country is receiving, could heighten Western perceptions of China as not just an economic miracle but a competitor and a threat. "If China wins the most number of medals, it is not necessarily a good thing," Jiang Qisheng, vice-president of the China chapter of International PEN, an association founded to defend freedom of expression. "It would be easier for nationalists to be carried away by China's success." Delury said that, for its part, China -- where the obligations of host and guest are entrenched in tradition -- will feel hurt that it laid on a sparkling party only to receive guests who "came and engaged in China bashing". "Through the prism of the international media we are getting a pretty negative impression of China," he said. "People who watch things closely in China will see the real story was the world being a bad guest." Several Chinese claiming to be "ordinary people" tried to stop a Reuters reporter from talking to three U.S. Christian protesters on Beijing's Tiananmen Square this week, saying they were angry that China's viewpoint was being ignored. "Don't talk to them, interview us. Let our voices be heard," one man shouted, trying to drag away the reporter. Ian Bremmer, president of the U.S.-based Eurasia Group, which analyses political risks, sees longer-term repercussions from the West's reluctance to view the Games as an unalloyed success. A proud and celebratory Chinese population will consider international resentment to be unfair, unfriendly, discriminatory and an effort to keep China down, he said. "Combine that with strong feelings of Chinese nationalism ... and we're likely to see some rather significant post-Olympics frictions that play badly against trends for great international market efficiency and free trade."
(Additional reporting by Benjamin Kang Lim and Benjamin Lim; Editing by Jeremy Laurence) )
BEIJING (Reuters) - It won't provoke a diplomatic incident and patriotic mobs are unlikely to take to Beijing's streets, but if Western leaders and the foreign media rain on China's parade it could leave a damaging legacy of resentment.
"So far it's going very poorly in terms of China's broader relationship with the world community," said John Delury, a China expert at the Asia Society in New York. "There's a good chance it's going to lead to some bad blood." There is no doubt that China's domestic media will present the Games as a glorious national achievement. But the Western media has so far been much more grudging, dwelling on Beijing's smog, government efforts to block sensitive websites, the harassment of journalists, the silencing of dissidents and unrest in both Tibet and the Xinjiang region. Western leaders, too, have seized on the opportunity to chide China over its human rights record, most notably U.S. President George W. Bush in a speech delivered on Thursday, just hours before he was due to arrive in Beijing for the opening of the Games. Minxin Pei, a senior associate in the China Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, expects the Chinese government to play all this down because it knows overreaction would itself be a news story and counter-productive.
"As for the public, if the government's reaction is measured, the public's reaction will also be restrained," he said, dismissing the prospect of patriotic street protests like those that erupted against Japan in 2005, or over what was perceived as Western support for anti-Chinese rioters in Tibet this year. Delury noted that explosions of nationalist outrage appear to have been manipulated in the past by what he referred to as government-sponsored netizens, and suggested that these would be reined in during the Games to preserve the image of a modern and responsible nation. "Things would have to get very dire, and quickly, to reach the point where the government wants to encourage or unleash that sort of sentiment," he said. "BAD GUESTS" There could nevertheless be strident displays of nationalism if China romps to the top of the medals table in the Olympic Games. That, along with the intense scrutiny the country is receiving, could heighten Western perceptions of China as not just an economic miracle but a competitor and a threat. "If China wins the most number of medals, it is not necessarily a good thing," Jiang Qisheng, vice-president of the China chapter of International PEN, an association founded to defend freedom of expression. "It would be easier for nationalists to be carried away by China's success." Delury said that, for its part, China -- where the obligations of host and guest are entrenched in tradition -- will feel hurt that it laid on a sparkling party only to receive guests who "came and engaged in China bashing". "Through the prism of the international media we are getting a pretty negative impression of China," he said. "People who watch things closely in China will see the real story was the world being a bad guest." Several Chinese claiming to be "ordinary people" tried to stop a Reuters reporter from talking to three U.S. Christian protesters on Beijing's Tiananmen Square this week, saying they were angry that China's viewpoint was being ignored. "Don't talk to them, interview us. Let our voices be heard," one man shouted, trying to drag away the reporter. Ian Bremmer, president of the U.S.-based Eurasia Group, which analyses political risks, sees longer-term repercussions from the West's reluctance to view the Games as an unalloyed success. A proud and celebratory Chinese population will consider international resentment to be unfair, unfriendly, discriminatory and an effort to keep China down, he said. "Combine that with strong feelings of Chinese nationalism ... and we're likely to see some rather significant post-Olympics frictions that play badly against trends for great international market efficiency and free trade."
(Additional reporting by Benjamin Kang Lim and Benjamin Lim; Editing by Jeremy Laurence) )
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment