Peace falls to pieces in the Philippines

By Noel Tarrazona ZAMBOANGA CITY - Will recently concluded democratic elections usher in more war or peace in the conflict-ridden southern Philippines? Voters last week gave incumbent governor Zaldy Ampatuan and vice governor Ansanddin Adiong fresh three-year mandates over the so-called Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), which entails five provinces and rich stores of untapped natural resources. The polls were protected by a heavy security presence and were the first to use a new computerized voting system. Independent observers said the elections were less marred by violence andmainly free and fair. Both winning candidates are allied to President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and have vowed to put peace, stability and economic development on the top of their agendas. But while voters cast their ballots, a tentative new peace deal between the government and the insurgent Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) was unraveling. An estimated 1,000 MILF rebels clashed with about twice as many Philippine armed forces in North Cotabato province, the seat of the ARMM's regional government. Rebels occupied three contested towns and torched hundreds of houses and properties in the province on learning the Supreme Court had at the 11th hour issued a temporary restraining order barring the government on constitutional grounds from entering a memorandum of agreement (MOA) with the MILF, which had been scheduled for a high-profile signing ceremony in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on August 5. The court convened on Friday to reconsider its decision. Philippine military sources said MILF rebels have since abandoned the three towns, though a MILF commander warned that clashes would resume if the government fails to honor its previous agreement. According to government authorities, over 130,000 people have fled their homes and the International Committee for the Red Cross estimates 80,000 are now internally displaced. The proposed MOA includes provisions allowing for the creation of the so-called Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE), which after a plebiscite would potentially give the MILF control over 700 villages in Christian-dominated areas of the ARMM. The BJE agreement would also give the MILF economic autonomy over the area's aerial, water, oil and other natural resources. The MOA's detractors contend that provisions in the draft agreement, including allowances for the possible establishment of Islamic law in the ARMM, are unconstitutional. Even if the agreement is finally adopted, it will take congress at least a year to pass the enabling legislation to hold the plebiscite, which will give villagers the choice to join or stay outside of the BJE. That proposal is already raising the hackles of certain local leaders. Lawrence Cruz, mayor of Iligian City, has strongly objected to losing any villages currently under his administration to the BJE. The MOA, as designed, would usurp 82% of the city's land area and result in a 20% cut in the annual revenues it receives from the national government, according to a recent Asia Foundation report. Other Muslim and Christian leaders unaligned with the MILF have also voiced strong opposition to the BJE proposal. Those complaints have been dramatized through recent protests attended by tens of thousands across the region. Prominent business leaders, meanwhile, have also stated their concerns about the MOA, including the likely complication of doing business with a de facto state within a state. That raises questions about whether a peace deal as proposed will accomplish the economic development and local trade linkages that will be pivotal to the ARMM's success. Some have even raised wary comparisons to Kosovo, the conflict-stricken province in southern Europe that declared independence from Serbia and is currently in a diplomatic vacuum where it is recognized by 45 different countries, including the United States, but opposed by others, including China and Russia. "What the MILF is asking for are the four elements of an independent state, namely: territory, sovereignty, people and governance. So are we ready to become like Kosovo, a state within a state?" asked lawyer Arsenio Gonzales, also a prominent businessman, at one of the protest rallies. The MILF, which broke away from the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) rebel group in 1981, has since fought violently for an autonomous ancestral homeland. The rebel MNLF signed an autonomy-granting peace agreement with the government in September 1996, but the MILF's demand for the establishment of an Islamic state in areas the group considers to be its ancestral homelands has repeatedly been rebuffed by the government on constitutional grounds.